Russo-Turkey Relations and the Middle East

Russo- flop Relations and the Middle atomic depend 99AbstractThe relation which Turkey shargon with Russia in the youthful decades has been an example of truly bonding nature. Over a prolonged friendly relation for more(prenominal) than than two decades, Turkeys dealing with Russia exacerbated first when it shot Russian bomber jet everyplace the Syrian border and secondly the unfortunate killing of Russian ambassador which happened in Ankara. These incidents surely sic a question mark on the peaceful relations of Turkey with Russia. Whether what the reality be, Turkey is accuse for stabbing Russia in the back. These sore tending acts initi wholey resulted in various sanctions posed by Russia against Turkey. In this alarming situation where crises wear overtaken most of Europe, Middle Eastern region and Russia, this rivalry may tutelage m any states in the glide slope earth order.PrefaceThe crisis in the Middle Eastern region has brought in its wake a perceptible shift in Russo-Turkey relations in the contemporary atomic number 18na. At first, the toss off of a Russian Su-24 bomber jet by Turkish F-16 fighter over the Syrian-Turkish border bewailed the professorship of Russia. The subsequent reaction of that incident provided a great index of the deterioration amid some(prenominal). Secondly, the assassination of the Russian ambassador Andrey Karlov in Turkey put a stamp on Turkeys grace of God in the sights of Russia. Russia was once considered a bitter enemy of Turks. In the contemporary arena, several ingredients have sassy the erstwhile tensions as witnessed in the Tsarist and Ottoman eras. With the passage of time, the interaction among them has been fluctuating in keeping with the geographic and leadershiphip transformation. By far, Syrian crisis is the a la mode(p) point of contradiction between them, representing divergent interests. This is becoming a test object lesson for the two for demonstrating their lost- ply in the wake of c ontemporary transformations in the world order from unipolar to multipolar.The policies of two the states to fightds Syria run comeback to each an different(prenominal). Russia has divided up a strong stinting partnership withSyria, fact being that it (Syria) has appeaseed a study beneficiary of Russianweaponry while Turkish Prime Minister, in 2012 called on Bashar al Assad tostep down as the President of Syria.No doubt, on that point are convergences and divergences between Russia and Turkey to project their policies with each separate as well as other stakeholders of the region. This motif is intended to analyse the Russo-Turkey relations in the backdrop of their interests in the Middle East, following the significance, convergences and divergences of their relations which have given rise to their contemporary role in the arena. After the discussion on the matter, this paper has extracted the role of Pakistan and has suggested way forward for Pakistans hostile policy conce rning the subject matter.Why Middle East matters the most to Russia and Turkey?The critical interests of Russia and Turkeyboth lies in the Middle East. nonetheless they do not tend to be the same. on a lower floorthe umbrella of NATO, Turkey is exercising its policies as an independent statein the Middle Eastern crisis. Syria, Iraq and Iran being border stitched toTurkey are perceived to be chthonic strong observations of Turkish policy makers.While Russia, not a NATO member has a different mannequin for the region,particularly its need for the Mediterranean ocean, weaponry market and trading ofoil and gas is apparent. Mediterranean Sea links Russia with EasternMediterranean Sea, the Middle East and North Africa. So any situation of engagement, war or unease in these regions has impact on Russias politicalposition.There are number of factors that are driving the Turkish policy in which Saudi Arab is a part. Turkey has made it induce that it wants the overth haggling of Assad. T his is the first time in its history that Turkey adopts a regimen-change strategy. When the United States decided to counter ISIS with the service of possible regional federation, Turkey refused to get actively involved unless the coalition were to target both Assad and ISIS at the same time. It is communicate that Ankara favours a war to the end of weakening all move Assad, ISIS, the Kurds and Iran. Yet it everlastingly preferred to rely on proxies and calls on NATO and the foreign community to intervene in Syria. It was because of this very tactic that Ankara leave behinded the Peshmerga (Iraqi Kurdish forces) to enter the Syrian town of Kobane through Turkey to help the Syrian Kurds in the battle against ISIS and this is again the reason why it decided to support the jihadists in Syria.While, Russia is seen more as to helping its friend Assad in the play as recently it condemned the United States air bring out on Syrias chemical launch pads. Syria is the only country in the region which has Russias base(s). act its efforts to play a role and get hold of the oil, gas and other economic factors, Russias positioning on Middle East policy is evident and strong in its intentions.Significance of Russia-Turkey relationsUnder theleadership of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Russia and Turkey signed mutual agreementsand MoUs for increasing both countries relations in terms of conduct andcooperation.Turkey has remained one of Russias main trading partners.Both share huge amount of business in the sectors of vital force, tourism and trade.The statistics show a viable flow of synergy between both. There is a proposed wrench of a gas pipeline as well as the Akkuyu power plant, which may be moved(p) after downing of a Russian jet by Turkey as a repugn incident.According to a Turkish academic, any damage to the infrastructure deals couldbe significant, because Turkey imports 55 pct of its natural gas fromRussia and 30 percent of its oil.Turkey has close strategic ties with Russia interms of power relationship with Russia, so it may be that the Turkish Streamproject as well as the nuclear energy project which is going to beconstructed by the Russians could be touch on, Professor GurkanKumbaroglu from Bogazici Universitys department of engineering, told CNBC.So it is apparent if any sort of clash of ideas occur in Russo-Turkey relations, Russia has its hands on the switch to coerce Turkey politically without involving any armed conflict.Similarly, Russias tourism departmententertains much of Turkeys tourism industry as 3.6 million Russians visitedTurkey in the first nine months of 2013, according to the latest statistics ofRussias Federal Tourism Agency. This definitely adds a lot to Turkish economyand proved Russia has the power to restrict its citizens to travel Turkey inthe emergence of any dispute between the two countries. On the other hand, trade is the most primarysector which both countries has shared since few decades with tremendous outcomes. Turkish vegetable exports account for some 20 percent of vegetable exportsto Russia. In 2014, according to Turkish foreign trade statistics, exports toRussia were worth $5.9 billion while imports from Russia were worth $25.2billion.This scenario is more prone to absolute gainsrather than relative gains because not only Turkey relies on Russian oil, gasand energy but Russias dependency on Turkish geostrategic location is aperfect example to say Turkey is to a fault at gains.Convergences of Russia-Turkey relationsContemporary Russia did not take Turkey as an independent state and always restrained to be in connection with it until 2003 when surprisingly The Justice and Development Party of Turkey refused to allow American forces to use Turkish territory to invade Iraq. This proved to be a game changer for Russias perception towards Turkey. The relations furthered in a positive way leaving the footprints of Cold contend era outside the door when Turkey, as a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, was considered a frontline state in the divide between the communist bloc and the western bloc. Surprisingly, given the unrest in the North Caucasus and the Balkans on which retort the policies of Ankara and Moscow clashed, these relations changed. The tangible convergences between the duos can be elaborated as underTurkeys need of oil and gas is one of themajor convergence in the Russo-Turkey relations. The economic interests of bothcountries meet but there are points of divergence in various strategic plans toextend oil and gas pipelines between countries of the Central Asia, and theMiddle East on the one hand and the European market on the other. So, they need to act rationally towards eachother to organize their interests.Russias dependency on Turkey is also apparentbecause Turkey might remain Russias necessary gateway to the Mediterranean,just as the Ottoman Empire was in the past.Nonetheless, there has been efforts to place relations betwe en the two countries which, in the form ofTurkish-Russian Cooperation Council in April and May 2010 got established. Sincethen the two leaders of the country have met annually. It has put a lot ofimpact on the international image of zygomorphous relations of Russia and Turkey becauseleaders from both sides warmly welcomed each other since then.Divergences, clashes and disputesThere have been blown-up number of conflicts eversince the Tsarist Russia and Ottoman Empire since 1560s. The Russian side wonmore battles than Turkey which cl early(a) indicates the significance of geographicdisposition of Russia. However, Crimean War led Russia lose due to possiblestronger alliance of Ottomans with British, French and Italian forces.While in the contemporary world, Turkeysneighbourhood has been in a turmoil, mainly Middle Eastern countries, which hasdirectly influenced Turkeys dealings with Europe and Russia.Today, the changed relationship between Turkeyand Russia has been affected by strat egic considerations and politicalinterests relating to the current reality in the Middle East. oddly thecrisis in Syria has moved both Turkey and Russia oppositely in terms ofnational interests. The two countries are not on the same pitch regarding thecrisis. Turkey has clearly taken steps to remove the regime of Assad whereas Russiaregards Assads ongoing leadership as a necessary condition to cope with theturmoil in the collapsed state. Preservation of its own strategic interests inthe Middle East, Russia is sensitive in providing support to Assad.The conflict of interests between Turkey andSyria includes border issues, questions pertaining to water and riparianrights, religious outlook, political-military orientation, drug-trafficking,smuggling, terrorism (Kurdish ins adjurency), and espionage etc.AnalysisSyrian crisis and all the history of Russo-Turkey relations aside, today, it is thought that Turkey has created a trust deficit in relation to its bilateral relations with Russi a. On the other hand Russia is also thought to have taken Turkish early warnings beneficial. However, there was not a serious threat to Turkey from Russia. Perhaps, Turkey could have considered many points of conflict before downing a Russian jet which was merely on its airspace (according to Russian recital of the incident) at Turkey-Syria border. Russia in no time retaliated and adopted a political approach launching serious sanctions against Turkey.The trauma was not much concerning the policies of Turkey or Russia towards Syrian crisis but shooting down a Russian jet paved a way of thinking for the Russians to analyse Turkeys intentions and goals for the coming days. Subsequently Russia accused Turkey of being in business with the Islamic State of Syria. Similar reactions are observed from Turkish side as well. The war of words between the leaders of both countries have definitely evoked state of unease and unrest to their bilateral relations. The conflict however is not seen as beneficial for any side at all. Russia, despite of its potential projects in Turkey, has unilaterally signed sanctions against it. However there are no signs of waging a war by any of them against each other.In recent decades, Russia and Turkey haveshared friendly and cooperative relations sharing economic, trade, military andprojects related to energy sector. Both have respected each others view in theinternational decision-making process.The issue is not only throttle to the interestsof both the countries, but then again there are endangerment factors which are givingshape to their policies. Turkey is not land locked, but still its a jigsawwhich connects whole Asia with the Europe. This puts a lot of responsibilityfor any leader of the Turkey to stand stop to head against any turmoil whichmay disrupt countrys repute in the international arena. While Russia, despitebeing connected with many states, has to depend on the market of Middle East,European countries and specifically Turkey to constitute its trade, military,economic and foreign policy for survival as a state.It is clear that international relations areuncertain and unpredictable, both are crucially unparalleled to each other andthe lack of trust between them is now a bone of contention. However, with thepassage of time, relations may fascinate instead of losing its charm because Russiamay digest what happened, or Turkey, which is not apparent at all, might rationalize for its act of downing a Russian jet. Because, in an emerging worldorder into multi polarity, the interests of others may urge Russia and Turkeyto rethink of their relations in a positive manner.Foreign policy guidelines for Pakistan in case of Russia-Turkey conflictThe conflict of ideas between Russian and Turkish relations hasnt directly influenced Pakistan to take any action of concern. However Pakistan does share points of convergences with both in terms of trade, educational exchange programs and tourist activities. In a nut shell, Pakistan and Turkey define each other as sister countries, and the friendly relations of both as a Muslim state is the apex of their strong bonds. On the other hand, while not overriding its relations with India, Russia has shown great interest to re-establish its bilateral relations with Pakistan. This can succeed the idea for Pakistan to carry a balanced foreign policy towards Turkey and Russia in this matter. Yet again the ill-timed row between Russia and Turkey has subjugating power to keep Pakistan a neutral observer.At this point in time, Pakistan as a member ofglobal community, having its national interests in Turkey, Russia and otherMiddle Eastern countries, has a shared responsibility to play positive role forthe betterment of relations between them. In a limited context, Pakistan mayadopt a policy of deescalating the tensions between both and suggest measuresof cooperation and coordination to tackle the situation. Not to forget, Yemencrisis affected thousands of Pa kistani citizens and resulted in their departurefrom Yemen. This puts Pakistan in a situation to tactfully regulate itsobligation to make up for the betterment of its own citizens while maintainingsustainable relations with other countries. 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